To successfully make the transition to net-zero emissions by 2060, Indonesia will need to fundamentally transform its energy and land use systems. This is to be done in a way that ensure affordable and secure energy supplies to support the country’s economic growth and development during the transition.

In Indonesia, the energy sector has been identified as the second main contributor of emissions after agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. The plausible pathways to decarbonise Indonesia’s economy and industry outlined in the Indonesia Sketch involve greater adoption and implementation of low-carbon electrons and low-carbon energy solutions such as bioenergy. On bioenergy, biofuels could make up almost 60% of all liquid fuels, to displace large amounts of oil and to support the decarbonisation of hard-to-electrify sectors such as aviation and chemicals.

“Pathways to meet Indonesia’s net-zero emissions target will require significant public and private partnership to realise such aspiration by 2060. For example, developing supplies of second generation and advanced biofuels in the longer term will be essential to minimise impact on food production and the wider natural environment. It will also support the transformation of Indonesia’s land use sector from a net contributor of greenhouse gas emissions to a net-negative source of emissions,” said Dr Mallika Ishwaran, Shell Chief Economist, who spoke at the launch event.

The Indonesia Sketch also sets out the acceleration of electrification, continued improvements in energy efficiency improvements, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS) as key actions. Deployment of CCS solution will be key to decarbonise the most expensive and hardest-to-abate emissions. This investment in low-carbon energy solutions will also generate economic multiplier effects, which essentially will benefit the economy.

Shell Indonesia President Director and Country Chair, Ingrid Siburian, said, “As a major energy producer and consumer, Indonesia can drive comprehensive decarbonisation efforts to support the country’s sustainable economic development aspiration. As a major investor in the energy sector in the country and in line with our Powering Progress strategy, Shell is committed to be an active partner in Indonesia’s energy transformation journey. The publication of Indonesia Sketch demonstrates Shell’s concrete contribution in the ongoing dialogue regarding the future of energy ecosystem in Indonesia.”

While building a net-zero energy system in Indonesia by 2060 is challenging, Shell believes it is technically possible for Indonesia to achieve its ambitions provided the country acts swiftly with a goal-oriented approach. Other key actions will include phasing down coal-fired power generation, investing in renewable generation, flexibility technologies and electricity infrastructure.

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About Shell Indonesia

Shell in Indonesia manages business in Downstream sector. Our activities include retail fuels business, lubricants, marine, as well as bitumen. Shell is the first international energy company with retail presence in the country with more than 190 operating sites in Greater Jakarta area, West Java, East Java and North Sumatera. Shell owns and operates fuel terminal in Gresik. In Lubricants, Shell provides oil products and related technical support to the industrial, automotive, and transport sectors. In 2015, Shell builds and operates a lubricant oil blending plant (LOBP) in Marunda, Bekasi, with a production capacity of 136 million litres. 


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Cautionary note

Scenarios don’t describe what will happen, or what should happen, rather they explore what could happen. We base them on plausible assumptions and quantification, and they are designed to stretch management’s thinking and even to consider events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes or a strategy. Investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities.

Shell’s scenarios, including this Indonesia sketch, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control. While we intend to travel this journey, only governments can create the framework for success.

This Indonesia Scenarios Sketch contains data and analysis from Shell’s Sky 1.5 scenario. The Sky 1.5 scenario starts with data from Shell's Sky scenario of 2018, but with important updates. First, the outlook uses the most recent modelling for the impact and recovery from COVID-19 consistent with a Sky 1.5 scenario narrative. Second, it blends this projection into existing Sky energy system data by around 2030. Third, the extensive scale-up of nature-based solutions is brought into the core scenario, which benefits from extensive new modelling of that scale-up. (In 2018, nature-based solutions required to achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century were analysed as a sensitivity to Sky. This analysis was also reviewed and included in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15).) Fourth, our new oil and natural gas supply modelling, with an outlook consistent with the Sky 1.5 narrative and demand is presented for the first time. Fifth, the Sky 1.5 scenario draws on the latest historical data and estimates to 2020 from various sources, particularly the extensive International Energy Agency energy statistics. As with Sky, this scenario assumes that society achieves the 1.5 degree Celsius stretch goal of the Paris Agreement. It stretches development dynamics today to explore a goal-oriented way to achieve that ambition. We worked backwards in designing how this could occur, considering the realities of the situation today and taking into account realistic timescales for change. Of course, there is a range of possible pathways that society could take to achieve the Paris goal. Although achieving the goal and the future depicted in Sky 1.5, while maintaining growth in the global economy, will be extremely challenging, it remains a technically possible pathway.

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This Indonesia sketch contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) that may affect Shell’s financial condition, results of operations and businesses. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “goals”, “intend”, “may”, “milestones”, “objectives”, “outlook”, “plan”, “probably”, “project”, “risks”, “schedule”, “seek”, “should”, “target”, “will” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this Indonesia sketch, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this Indonesia sketch are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 (available at and

These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this Indonesia sketch and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this Indonesia sketch, September 29, 2022.